{"version":"1.0","methodologyVersion":"1.0","checkedAt":"2026-09-28","automation":{"enabled":true,"label":"Every Monday morning · UK time","firstScheduledDate":"2026-09-14","mechanism":"Scheduled research and Sites republication","lastScheduledRun":"2026-09-28"},"countries":[{"id":"us","name":"United States"},{"id":"cn","name":"China"},{"id":"uk","name":"United Kingdom"},{"id":"de","name":"Germany"},{"id":"fr","name":"France"},{"id":"es","name":"Spain"},{"id":"in","name":"India"},{"id":"sg","name":"Singapore"},{"id":"au","name":"Australia"},{"id":"jp","name":"Japan"},{"id":"ca","name":"Canada"},{"id":"br","name":"Brazil"},{"id":"za","name":"South Africa"}],"markets":[{"id":"world","name":"World","members":[]},{"id":"europe","name":"Europe","members":["uk","de","fr","es"]},{"id":"row","name":"Rest of world","members":["in","sg","au","jp","ca","br","za"]},{"id":"us","name":"United States","members":[]},{"id":"cn","name":"China","members":[]},{"id":"uk","name":"United Kingdom","members":[]},{"id":"de","name":"Germany","members":[]},{"id":"fr","name":"France","members":[]},{"id":"es","name":"Spain","members":[]},{"id":"in","name":"India","members":[]},{"id":"sg","name":"Singapore","members":[]},{"id":"au","name":"Australia","members":[]},{"id":"jp","name":"Japan","members":[]},{"id":"ca","name":"Canada","members":[]},{"id":"br","name":"Brazil","members":[]},{"id":"za","name":"South Africa","members":[]}],"sectors":[{"id":"consumer","name":"Consumer commerce"},{"id":"retail","name":"Retail"},{"id":"travel","name":"Travel & hospitality"},{"id":"finance","name":"Financial services"},{"id":"payments","name":"Payment infrastructure"},{"id":"procurement","name":"B2B procurement"},{"id":"insurance","name":"Insurance"},{"id":"energy","name":"Energy & utilities"},{"id":"telecom","name":"Telecoms"},{"id":"property","name":"Property"},{"id":"manufacturing","name":"Manufacturing"},{"id":"logistics","name":"Logistics"},{"id":"healthcare","name":"Healthcare"},{"id":"digital","name":"Digital services"}],"sources":[{"id":"adobe-jul26-retail","publisher":"Adobe Digital Insights","title":"Retail: AI referral growth continues","url":"https://business.adobe.com/assets/pdfs/resources/sdk/ai-traffic-trends-report-august-2026/ai-traffic-trends-report-2026-08-19.pdf#page=7","publishedAt":"2026-08-19","observedPeriod":"July 2026 vs July 2025","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["retail"],"stage":"discovery","valueText":"+62%","metric":"Year-on-year AI-driven visit-share growth","shortMetric":"Referral growth","summary":"Adobe reports 62% year-on-year growth for retail in its August report.","limitation":"Visit-share growth is not an absolute spending share or delegated execution.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"adobe-jul26-travel","publisher":"Adobe Digital Insights","title":"Travel: the strongest referral growth","url":"https://business.adobe.com/assets/pdfs/resources/sdk/ai-traffic-trends-report-august-2026/ai-traffic-trends-report-2026-08-19.pdf#page=22","publishedAt":"2026-08-19","observedPeriod":"July 2026 vs July 2025","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["travel"],"stage":"discovery","valueText":"+119%","metric":"Year-on-year AI-driven visit-share growth","shortMetric":"Referral growth","summary":"Travel AI referrals grew 119% year on year. The AI/non-AI conversion gap narrowed to 1%.","limitation":"Visits and conversion do not identify who executes a booking.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"adobe-jul26-finance","publisher":"Adobe Digital Insights","title":"Financial services: AI discovery expands","url":"https://business.adobe.com/assets/pdfs/resources/sdk/ai-traffic-trends-report-august-2026/ai-traffic-trends-report-2026-08-19.pdf#page=5","publishedAt":"2026-08-19","observedPeriod":"July 2026 vs July 2025","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["finance"],"stage":"discovery","valueText":"+31%","metric":"Year-on-year AI-driven visit-share growth","shortMetric":"Referral growth","summary":"Adobe reports 31% year-on-year growth in financial-services AI visit share.","limitation":"A research visit is not an agent-executed financial transaction.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"niq-jul26","publisher":"NielsenIQ (issuer release)","title":"Consumer adoption still exceeds purchase delegation","url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/120-million-ai-pay-transactions-single-week-ai-shopping-agents-move-theory-checkout","publishedAt":"2026-07-30","observedPeriod":"Report released April 2026; survey fieldwork not specified in release","geography":"Global survey; no country breakdown","countries":["world"],"sectors":["retail"],"stage":"survey","valueText":"~8%","metric":"Consumers who have let AI complete a purchase","shortMetric":"Survey adoption","summary":"NIQ reports about 34% use AI for product research, while about 8% have allowed it to complete a purchase.","limitation":"Consumer incidence is not the share or value of purchases. Geography, fieldwork and autonomy need fuller methodology before AEI use.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"mc-machines","publisher":"Mastercard","title":"Agent Pay for Machines introduces machine-payment rails","url":"https://www.mastercard.com/global/en/news-and-trends/press/2026/june/mastercard-launches-agent-pay-for-machines.html","publishedAt":"2026-06-10","observedPeriod":"Product announcement, June 2026","geography":"Global announcement","countries":["world"],"sectors":["payments","digital","logistics"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Launch","metric":"Infrastructure announcement, no adoption denominator","shortMetric":"New rails","summary":"Mastercard introduced payments for high-frequency machine transactions, supported by more than 30 industry participants.","limitation":"Digital-services and logistics examples are proposed use cases. This is not measured deployment, transaction value or AEI.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"mc-procurement","publisher":"Mastercard","title":"Agent-led procurement work in Australia and New Zealand","url":"https://www.mastercard.com/global/en/news-and-trends/stories/2026/mastercard-agentic-commerce-vision.html","publishedAt":"2026-05-26","observedPeriod":"Status described in May 2026","geography":"Australia and New Zealand","countries":["au","nz"],"sectors":["procurement","payments"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"In development","metric":"Partner work on agent-led business purchasing","shortMetric":"Partner work","summary":"Mastercard describes work with partners to enable sourcing, ordering and payment for businesses in Australia and New Zealand.","limitation":"The article gives no country-specific transaction volume or value. Planned enablement is not measured economic delegation.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"anthropic-deal","publisher":"Anthropic","title":"Project Deal: agents negotiate real exchanges","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/features/project-deal","publishedAt":"2026-04","observedPeriod":"December 2025 experiment; published April 2026","geography":"San Francisco, United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["retail"],"stage":"experiment","valueText":"186 deals","metric":"Internal experimental transactions; just over $4,000 value","shortMetric":"T5 experiment","summary":"Claude agents represented 69 employees and negotiated 186 real deals without further human sign-off during negotiation.","limitation":"A self-selected, subsidised internal marketplace cannot estimate the national T5 share. Physical goods were subsequently exchanged by people.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"visa-framework","publisher":"Visa","title":"The payment framework behind agentic commerce","url":"https://corporate.visa.com/en/sites/visa-perspectives/innovation/agentic-commerce-expanded-payments-economy.html","publishedAt":"2026-03-17","observedPeriod":"Infrastructure position, March 2026","geography":"Global network","countries":["world"],"sectors":["payments","procurement"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Framework","metric":"Intelligent Commerce and Trusted Agent Protocol","shortMetric":"Payment framework","summary":"Visa describes permissioned credentials, agent identity and payment controls as foundations for agentic commerce.","limitation":"Network-wide transaction volumes are not agentic transaction volumes. No AEI numerator is disclosed.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"visa-europe-ready","publisher":"Visa","title":"Agentic Ready begins European issuer testing","url":"https://www.visa.co.uk/about-visa/newsroom/press-releases.3437886.html","publishedAt":"2026-03-17","observedPeriod":"Programme launch, March 2026","geography":"Europe, including the United Kingdom","countries":["europe","uk"],"sectors":["payments"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Testing","metric":"Controlled production testing programme","shortMetric":"Issuer readiness","summary":"Visa launched a programme for issuers to test and validate agent-initiated payments, starting in Europe including the UK.","limitation":"Readiness testing is not transaction adoption. No country-level autonomous spending value is disclosed.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"santander-pilot","publisher":"Mastercard / Santander","title":"A controlled live agent-payment pilot in Europe","url":"https://www.mastercard.com/news/europe/en/newsroom/press-releases/en/2026/santander-and-mastercard-complete-europe-s-first-live-end-to-end-payment-executed-by-an-ai-agent/","publishedAt":"2026-03-02","observedPeriod":"Controlled pilot announced March 2026","geography":"Europe; London and Madrid announcement","countries":["europe"],"sectors":["payments"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Pilot","metric":"Live payment in a controlled environment","shortMetric":"Live pilot","summary":"Santander tested an AI-initiated payment through live infrastructure with Mastercard Agent Pay.","limitation":"The publisher explicitly says this is not a commercial rollout. No national allocation or transaction-value share is available.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"ant-cny26","publisher":"Ant Group (issuer release via Business Wire)","title":"Alipay AI Pay reaches more than 100 million users","url":"https://markets.financialcontent.com/wss/article/bizwire-2026-2-23-ant-groups-alipay-ai-pay-and-ai-health-app-aq-each-surpass-100-million-users-during-cny-as-ai-adoption-accelerates-in-china","publishedAt":"2026-02-23","observedPeriod":"Chinese New Year period, February 2026","geography":"China","countries":["cn"],"sectors":["retail","payments"],"stage":"execution","valueText":"100m+","metric":"Users of Alipay AI Pay during the reported period","shortMetric":"AI Pay users","summary":"Ant Group reports that Alipay AI Pay surpassed 100 million users during Chinese New Year.","limitation":"Provider-reported users are not transaction value. The release does not establish the autonomy of every purchase or a market-wide AEI denominator.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"alipay-week26","publisher":"Ant Group (issuer release via Business Wire)","title":"Alipay AI Pay: a week of reported transaction activity","url":"https://markets.financialcontent.com/wss/article/bizwire-2026-2-23-ant-groups-alipay-ai-pay-and-ai-health-app-aq-each-surpass-100-million-users-during-cny-as-ai-adoption-accelerates-in-china","publishedAt":"2026-02-23","observedPeriod":"5–11 February 2026","geography":"China","countries":["cn"],"sectors":["retail","payments"],"stage":"execution","valueText":"120m+","metric":"AI Pay transactions during one week","shortMetric":"Weekly payments","summary":"Ant Group reports more than 120 million AI Pay transactions during 5–11 February 2026.","limitation":"Payment count is not transaction value. Voice-command payment does not establish autonomous choice for every purchase. This overlaps the same release’s user figure and is not independent evidence.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"salesforce-holiday25","publisher":"Salesforce","title":"AI influence during the 2025 holiday season","url":"https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/2025-holiday-shopping-data/","publishedAt":"2026-01-08","observedPeriod":"1 November–31 December 2025","geography":"Global online retail","countries":["world"],"sectors":["retail"],"stage":"discovery","valueText":"20%","metric":"Online holiday sales influenced by AI and agents","shortMetric":"AI-influenced sales","summary":"Salesforce attributes $262 billion, about 20% of global online holiday sales, to AI and agent influence.","limitation":"Includes recommendations and customer engagement. Influence is broader than AEI T3 and is not proof of delegated execution; do not insert 20% into the formula.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"adobe-holiday25","publisher":"Adobe Analytics","title":"US holiday retail: rapid growth from a small AI base","url":"https://news.adobe.com/news/2026/01/adobe-holiday-shopping-season","publishedAt":"2026-01-07","observedPeriod":"1 November–31 December 2025 vs 2024","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["retail"],"stage":"discovery","valueText":"+693.4%","metric":"Year-on-year AI-referred retail traffic growth","shortMetric":"Referral growth","summary":"Adobe measured 693.4% growth in traffic arriving from generative AI tools during the holiday period.","limitation":"This is traffic growth from a modest base, not 693.4% adoption. Different periods and definitions make comparison with the July visit-share metric unsafe.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"paypal-instant","publisher":"PayPal","title":"Perplexity Instant Buy launches for US shoppers","url":"https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2025-11-PayPal-and-Perplexity-Launch-Instant-Buy","publishedAt":"2025-11-25","observedPeriod":"Launch, November 2025","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["retail","payments"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Available","metric":"In-chat checkout capability","shortMetric":"Checkout launch","summary":"PayPal enabled US Perplexity users to check out with merchants inside the shopping conversation.","limitation":"The published flow includes user clicks. In-chat checkout does not automatically satisfy T4 autonomous choice and execution; no value share is disclosed.","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"emvco-agentic-framework-sep26","publisher":"EMVCo","title":"Draft framework for card-based agentic payments","url":"https://www.emvco.com/news/emvco-requests-feedback-on-framework-for-secure-interoperable-and-scalable-card-based-agentic-payments/","publishedAt":"2026-09-01","observedPeriod":"Draft framework released 1 September 2026; public review closes 30 September 2026","geography":"Global card payments","countries":["world"],"sectors":["payments","retail"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Draft standard","metric":"Interoperability framework, not an adoption measurement","shortMetric":"Standards milestone","summary":"EMVCo opened a draft framework for managing persistent consumer intent in card-based agentic payments, including scenarios where a consumer is absent when payment is executed.","limitation":"This is a draft technical framework. It reports no live transaction count or value and cannot populate any AEI tier.","checkedAt":"2026-09-14","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"niq-similarweb-measurement-sep26","publisher":"NielsenIQ","title":"NIQ and Similarweb announce agentic-commerce measurement","url":"https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2026/niq-and-similarweb-advance-agentic-commerce-measurement-for-the-ai-shopping-era/","publishedAt":"2026-09-02","observedPeriod":"Product announcement, 2 September 2026; initial availability forecast for Q4 2026","geography":"Initial categories and markets not yet specified","countries":["world"],"sectors":["retail","consumer"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Q4 forecast","metric":"Future measurement capability, no published observed values","shortMetric":"Measurement planned","summary":"NIQ and Similarweb plan to connect AI discovery, traffic and conversion signals with measured retail sales, with an initial version expected in Q4 2026.","limitation":"The release is a product forecast, not a dataset. It does not separate autonomous execution from human-confirmed purchases or provide transaction-value shares.","checkedAt":"2026-09-14","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"blik-autonomous-pilot-sep26","publisher":"BLIK","title":"Polish pilot completes a purchase without the user present","url":"https://www.blik.com/en/first-pilot-blik-transaction-completed-independently-by-an-ai-agent","publishedAt":"2026-09-09","observedPeriod":"Single controlled pilot transaction announced 9 September 2026","geography":"Poland","countries":["europe"],"sectors":["retail","payments"],"stage":"experiment","valueText":"PLN 19.99","metric":"One agent-completed purchase using prior, conditional payment consent","shortMetric":"Autonomous pilot","summary":"An AI agent monitored product availability and completed a PLN 19.99 purchase after the user had previously set conditions and authorised payment; no user action was required at execution.","limitation":"This is one pilot transaction, not a representative series or market-value share. Prior user authorisation means the event is relevant to delegated execution, but it supplies no denominator for Europe or Poland.","checkedAt":"2026-09-14","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"mastercard-agent-connect-sep26","publisher":"Mastercard","title":"Agent Connect expands merchant-facing agentic infrastructure","url":"https://www.mastercard.com/global/en/news-and-trends/press/2026/september/mastercard-gives-merchants-a-simpler-way-to-build--connect-and-s.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-09","observedPeriod":"Product announcement, 9 September 2026","geography":"Global announcement","countries":["world"],"sectors":["retail","payments"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"Launch","metric":"Merchant integration capability, no adoption denominator","shortMetric":"Merchant rails","summary":"Mastercard announced Agent Connect and expanded merchant tools covering product discovery, recommendations and a trusted path to purchase across participating agents.","limitation":"The release describes capabilities and partner intentions. It does not report production transaction value, count or autonomy mix.","checkedAt":"2026-09-14","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"ant-amp-phase1-sep26","publisher":"Ant International","title":"Agentic Mobile Protocol begins global Phase I rollout","url":"https://www.ant-intl.com/en/news/detail/?id=ant-internationals-agentic-mobile-protocol-rolls-out-globally-with-wallets-acquirers-initiating-collaboration-on-kya-interoperability-framework-with-mastercard-and-visa","publishedAt":"2026-09-11","observedPeriod":"Phase I rollout announced 11 September 2026","geography":"China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Philippines, South Korea, Macao, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore; global acquiring partners","countries":["cn","sg","row"],"sectors":["payments","retail","digital"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"10 wallets","metric":"Phase I partners and addressable accounts, not active agentic transaction value","shortMetric":"Wallet rollout","summary":"Ant International says ten Alipay+ wallets serving 1.5 billion accounts and seven acquirers are participating in Phase I of its Agentic Mobile Protocol rollout.","limitation":"Partner reach and eligible accounts are not active users or transactions. The release gives no completed agentic-payment value or mutually exclusive autonomy tiers.","checkedAt":"2026-09-14","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"meta-muse-sep26","publisher":"Meta","title":"Muse launches with browsing, negotiation and purchasing","url":"https://about.fb.com/news/2026/09/introducing-muse-personal-ai-agent/","publishedAt":"2026-09-08","observedPeriod":"US product rollout announced 8 September 2026","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["retail","travel","payments","consumer"],"stage":"execution","valueText":"US rollout","metric":"Consumer-agent purchasing capability with approval before purchase","shortMetric":"Agent checkout","summary":"Meta launched Muse in the United States with browser-based shopping, negotiation and checkout through Stripe Link one-time-use cards; Meta says the agent returns for approval before making a purchase.","limitation":"The launch reports capability, not transaction count or value. Because a person approves before purchase, the flow cannot be treated as autonomous T4 execution without transaction-level evidence on the agent's decision authority.","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"visa-trust-index-sep26","publisher":"Visa","title":"Visa Trust Index measures US willingness, not transactions","url":"https://corporate.visa.com/en/sites/visa-perspectives/newsroom/visa-trust-index-consumer-insights-into-ai-shopping-payments.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-09","observedPeriod":"Harris Poll fieldwork 26–28 May 2026; published 9 September 2026","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["payments","consumer"],"stage":"survey","valueText":"23%","metric":"Consumers who trust generative AI to handle payments on their behalf","shortMetric":"Payment trust","summary":"Visa reports that 23% of surveyed US consumers trust generative AI to handle payment transactions on their behalf; the relevant question base was about 1,028 to 1,034 respondents.","limitation":"Stated trust is not observed use, purchase incidence or transaction value. The result cannot be mapped to T4 or T5 and the publication date is later than the May fieldwork.","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"aci-fashion-autonomy-sep26","publisher":"ACI Worldwide / YouGov","title":"Fashion shoppers prefer approval over autonomous buying","url":"https://www.aciworldwide.com/resources/fashion-consumer-trends-report","publishedAt":"2026-09-16","observedPeriod":"Survey published 16 September 2026; fieldwork dates not stated on the source page","geography":"United Kingdom and United States","countries":["uk","us"],"sectors":["retail"],"stage":"survey","valueText":"7%","metric":"Fashion and sportswear shoppers willing to allow purchases without per-purchase approval","shortMetric":"Autonomy intent","summary":"ACI Worldwide reports that 7% of more than 3,000 UK and US fashion and sportswear shoppers would let an AI assistant buy without per-purchase approval, split between set limits and specified retailers.","limitation":"This is stated willingness in one retail category, not observed delegated purchasing or transaction value. The source page does not publish country-level splits or fieldwork dates.","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"amazon-autobuy-sep26","publisher":"Amazon","title":"Alexa for Shopping offers conditional Auto-Buy","url":"https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/amazon-ai-shopping-tools","publishedAt":"2026-09-15","observedPeriod":"Feature article updated 15 September 2026 ahead of Prime Big Deal Days, 6–7 October 2026","geography":"Amazon shopping feature; country availability not specified in the article","countries":["world"],"sectors":["retail","consumer"],"stage":"execution","valueText":"Available","metric":"Conditional automatic purchase capability at a user-set target price","shortMetric":"Auto-Buy","summary":"Amazon says shoppers can instruct Alexa for Shopping to buy a specified item automatically when it reaches a target price, using the default payment method.","limitation":"The article reports availability, not completed purchases, transaction value or geographic coverage. A feature launch cannot establish market share or a comparable T4 series.","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"mastercard-tripgenie-sep26","publisher":"Mastercard","title":"Trip.com and Mastercard preview an agentic travel-booking flow","url":"https://www.mastercard.com/news/eemea/en/newsroom/press-releases/en/2026/september/mastercard-and-trip-com-pave-the-way-for-agentic-commerce-in-the-travel-sector/","publishedAt":"2026-09-16","observedPeriod":"Collaboration announced 16 September 2026; solution expected in early 2027","geography":"EEMEA announcement; rollout markets not specified","countries":["row"],"sectors":["travel","payments"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"2027 forecast","metric":"Planned end-to-end agentic travel booking capability","shortMetric":"Travel pilot planned","summary":"Mastercard, Trip.com and Network International are showcasing a flow intended to let users search, book and complete purchases through TripGenie, with the solution expected in early 2027.","limitation":"This is a collaboration announcement and future availability forecast. It supplies no live booking count, value, autonomy breakdown or country allocation.","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"salesforce-google-ucp-sep26","publisher":"Salesforce","title":"Salesforce and Google announce UCP-powered checkout integration","url":"https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/salesforce-google-cloud-unify-infrastructure-and-agents/","publishedAt":"2026-09-15","observedPeriod":"Partnership announcement 15 September 2026; UCP integration forecast for October 2026","geography":"Global product announcement; regional availability not specified","countries":["world"],"sectors":["retail","payments","digital"],"stage":"infrastructure","valueText":"October forecast","metric":"Planned Universal Commerce Protocol checkout integration","shortMetric":"Checkout planned","summary":"Salesforce and Google announced a native product-feed integration and UCP-powered checkout, with the UCP integration scheduled for general availability in October 2026.","limitation":"The release is a product and availability forecast, not evidence of completed agentic purchases or transaction-value share.","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"mastercard-canada-agent-pay-sep26","publisher":"Mastercard","title":"Canada's first Mastercard Agent Pay transaction","url":"https://www.mastercard.com/ca/en/news-and-trends/press/2026/september/mastercard-flybits-and-rogers-establish-benchmark-for-agentic-commerce-in-canada.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","observedPeriod":"Single deployment announced 21 September 2026; Canadian consumer survey conducted August 2026","geography":"Canada","countries":["ca"],"sectors":["retail","payments","consumer"],"stage":"execution","valueText":"1 transaction","metric":"Live agent-initiated purchase within cardholder instructions and spending limits","shortMetric":"Canadian live purchase","summary":"Mastercard, Flybits and Rogers Bank report Canada's first successful deployment of an agentic commerce transaction. A Flybits assistant identified an eligible product within a Rogers Red cardholder's specified budget and completed the purchase through Mastercard Agent Pay.","limitation":"The release describes one transaction and does not publish its value, merchant category, population denominator or recurring volume. Consumer-control wording and validated instructions do not establish an economy-wide autonomy share. The accompanying 2,000-adult survey measures openness, not completed purchases.","checkedAt":"2026-09-28","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"niq-us-agentic-tracker-sep26","publisher":"NIQ","title":"NIQ Agentic Commerce Tracker reports majority US shopping-tool use","url":"https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2026/majority-of-u-s-consumers-now-use-ai-to-shop-niq-finds/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","observedPeriod":"Monthly US consumer tracker; latest wave published 24 September 2026","geography":"United States","countries":["us"],"sectors":["retail","consumer"],"stage":"survey","valueText":"51%","metric":"Consumers reporting use of at least one AI-powered shopping tool in the past month","shortMetric":"AI shopping-tool use","summary":"NIQ's monthly tracker reports that 51% of US consumers used at least one AI-powered tool to support shopping in the past month, including 20% using AI product recommendations and 16% using AI personal shopping assistants.","limitation":"The release does not state the latest-wave sample size or fieldwork dates. Self-reported support across discovery, comparison and decision-making is not autonomous execution, purchase incidence or transaction value, so it cannot populate an AEI tier.","checkedAt":"2026-09-28","aeiEligible":false},{"id":"anthropic-project-swap-sep26","publisher":"Anthropic","title":"Project Swap tests agent-to-agent barter","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-swap","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","observedPeriod":"Controlled summer 2026 experiment published 24 September 2026","geography":"Six Anthropic offices in the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland","countries":["us","uk"],"sectors":["retail","consumer"],"stage":"experiment","valueText":"201 participants","metric":"Claude agents negotiated and executed book swaps on participants' behalf","shortMetric":"Agent barter experiment","summary":"Anthropic ran a controlled barter market with 201 employees across six offices. Claude-powered agents inferred book preferences, negotiated with other agents and executed bilateral or multi-party swaps when every agent accepted.","limitation":"This was an employee experiment using books already contributed by participants, not representative commercial activity. No money changed hands, there is no transaction-value denominator, and the sample is not representative. The follow-up willingness to delegate about 30% of book budgets is stated intent, not observed spending.","checkedAt":"2026-09-28","aeiEligible":false}],"snapshots":[{"week":"2026-W27","checkedAt":"2026-07-04","summary":"Imported founding-paper baseline, not a historical automated research run. The rounded inputs are balanced in T2 and recalculated with the paper’s formula.","readings":[{"region":"world","sector":"consumer","tiers":[20,78.7,1.2,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"inferred_estimate","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"us","sector":"consumer","tiers":[10,88.4,1.5,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"inferred_estimate","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"cn","sector":"consumer","tiers":[6,91.8,2,0.2,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"inferred_estimate","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"europe","sector":"consumer","tiers":[12,87.15,0.8,0.05,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"inferred_estimate","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"row","sector":"consumer","tiers":[35,64.49,0.5,0.01,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"inferred_estimate","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false}],"newSources":[]},{"week":"2026-W37","checkedAt":"2026-09-09","summary":"Version 1 research: added published referral, survey, payment and pilot evidence. The latest Adobe report covers July 2026. No reviewed source supplies a complete national or sector tier transaction-value denominator, so July inferred baselines are explicitly carried forward. No historical acceleration is inferred.","readings":[{"region":"world","sector":"consumer","tiers":[20,78.7,1.2,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"us","sector":"consumer","tiers":[10,88.4,1.5,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"cn","sector":"consumer","tiers":[6,91.8,2,0.2,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"europe","sector":"consumer","tiers":[12,87.15,0.8,0.05,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"row","sector":"consumer","tiers":[35,64.49,0.5,0.01,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Not calibrated from this dashboard’s proxy metrics.","executionDriven":false}],"newSources":["adobe-jul26-retail","adobe-jul26-travel","adobe-jul26-finance","niq-jul26","mc-machines","mc-procurement","anthropic-deal","visa-framework","visa-europe-ready","santander-pilot","ant-cny26","alipay-week26","salesforce-holiday25","adobe-holiday25","paypal-instant"]},{"week":"2026-W38","checkedAt":"2026-09-14","summary":"Weekly review added five primary-source records covering a draft global card standard, a planned measurement product, one Polish delegated-execution pilot, new merchant integration rails and the Phase I rollout of Ant International's mobile agent protocol. None supplies a complete, representative transaction-value denominator, so the dated July inferred baselines are carried forward unchanged and excluded from growth or doubling estimates.","readings":[{"region":"world","sector":"consumer","tiers":[20,78.7,1.2,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. No new comparable tier value-share evidence was found in the 14 September review.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"us","sector":"consumer","tiers":[10,88.4,1.5,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. No new comparable tier value-share evidence was found in the 14 September review.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"cn","sector":"consumer","tiers":[6,91.8,2,0.2,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Ant's new rollout record reports reach, not completed transaction value.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"europe","sector":"consumer","tiers":[12,87.15,0.8,0.05,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. The new Polish pilot is one transaction and has no market denominator.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"row","sector":"consumer","tiers":[35,64.49,0.5,0.01,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Ant's new rollout record reports partner coverage, not completed transaction value.","executionDriven":false}],"newSources":["emvco-agentic-framework-sep26","niq-similarweb-measurement-sep26","blik-autonomous-pilot-sep26","mastercard-agent-connect-sep26","ant-amp-phase1-sep26"]},{"week":"2026-W39","checkedAt":"2026-09-21","summary":"Weekly review added six primary-source records: Meta's US Muse purchasing flow, Visa and ACI consumer-trust surveys, Amazon's conditional Auto-Buy feature, a planned Mastercard and Trip.com travel flow, and a planned Salesforce and Google checkout integration. These are capability, survey or forecast signals rather than representative transaction-value measurements, so the dated July inferred baselines remain unchanged and are excluded from trend calculations.","readings":[{"region":"world","sector":"consumer","tiers":[20,78.7,1.2,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. This week's global product announcements contain no comparable tier value shares.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"us","sector":"consumer","tiers":[10,88.4,1.5,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Muse capability and US trust survey results do not provide observed transaction-value shares.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"cn","sector":"consumer","tiers":[6,91.8,2,0.2,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. No new comparable Chinese transaction-value evidence was found in the 21 September review.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"europe","sector":"consumer","tiers":[12,87.15,0.8,0.05,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. UK survey intent is not observed purchasing and supplies no value denominator.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"row","sector":"consumer","tiers":[35,64.49,0.5,0.01,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. The Trip.com collaboration is a future product signal without market value data.","executionDriven":false}],"newSources":["meta-muse-sep26","visa-trust-index-sep26","aci-fashion-autonomy-sep26","amazon-autobuy-sep26","mastercard-tripgenie-sep26","salesforce-google-ucp-sep26"]},{"week":"2026-W40","checkedAt":"2026-09-28","summary":"Weekly review added three primary-source records: a single live Mastercard Agent Pay purchase in Canada, NIQ's monthly US consumer survey on AI shopping-tool use, and Anthropic's controlled agent-to-agent book-swap experiment. None provides representative transaction-value shares by mutually exclusive autonomy tier, so the dated July inferred baselines remain unchanged and are excluded from trend and doubling calculations.","readings":[{"region":"world","sector":"consumer","tiers":[20,78.7,1.2,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. This week's primary evidence reports isolated capability, self-reported assistance and a controlled barter experiment, not comparable transaction-value shares.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"us","sector":"consumer","tiers":[10,88.4,1.5,0.1,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. NIQ's 51% is self-reported use of any AI shopping tool, not completed transaction value or an autonomy-tier mix.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"cn","sector":"consumer","tiers":[6,91.8,2,0.2,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. No new comparable Chinese transaction-value evidence was found in the 28 September review.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"europe","sector":"consumer","tiers":[12,87.15,0.8,0.05,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Anthropic's employee barter study spans several offices but has no monetary transaction-value denominator.","executionDriven":false},{"region":"row","sector":"consumer","tiers":[35,64.49,0.5,0.01,0],"asOf":"2026-07-04","kind":"carried","sourceIds":["paper"],"confidence":"low","basis":"Dixon draft v4; T2 balances rounded tiers to 100%. Canada's single reported Agent Pay purchase establishes execution capability but not a market transaction-value share.","executionDriven":false}],"newSources":["mastercard-canada-agent-pay-sep26","niq-us-agentic-tracker-sep26","anthropic-project-swap-sep26"]}],"revisionLog":[{"date":"2026-09-09","note":"Methodology 1.0: T2 is the residual after the other rounded tiers, giving World 0.1720%, US 0.2028%, China 0.3058%, Europe 0.1058%, Rest of world 0.0553%. All are inferred estimates. The original paper is unchanged."},{"date":"2026-09-09","note":"Corrected interpretation, not formula: discovery alone can exceed 1% AEI. Confirmed take-off requires separate execution-led evidence. Defined missing 25–50% band as continued reordering watch and 50% or above as new default."},{"date":"2026-09-29","note":"Terminology updated to inferred estimate. Baseline values, underlying sources, original observation dates, and the distinction between held estimates and new measurements are unchanged."}],"researchChecks":[{"date":"2026-09-09","url":"https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260213770962/en/","status":"unavailable","note":"Original February 13 release was unavailable. The February 23 Ant Group issuer release was read through Business Wire syndication and corroborates the count."},{"date":"2026-09-09","url":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ECOMPCTSA","status":"reviewed_context","note":"Retail e-commerce context does not classify AI agency. Not used to create a new tier estimate."},{"date":"2026-09-14","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/webinars/building-claude-commerce-agents","status":"reviewed_no_metric","note":"Anthropic's commerce-agent webinar describes reference implementations for retail, travel, telecoms and entertainment, but publishes no observed transaction-value share or comparable adoption series."},{"date":"2026-09-14","url":"https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data","status":"reviewed_context","note":"The US Business Trends and Outlook Survey was updated on 10 September and reports general business AI use. It does not identify agentic economic transactions, so it was not used to update AEI."},{"date":"2026-09-14","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Use_of_artificial_intelligence_in_enterprises","status":"reviewed_context","note":"Eurostat's enterprise AI adoption statistics measure technology use by enterprises, not transaction-value tiers or autonomous economic execution. No AEI update was made."},{"date":"2026-09-21","url":"https://business.adobe.com/assets/pdfs/resources/sdk/ai-traffic-trends-report-august-2026/ai-traffic-trends-report-2026-08-19.pdf","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"Adobe's latest located primary measurement remains the August report covering July 2026 AI referral traffic. Referral growth does not identify delegated execution and no newer value-share series was found."},{"date":"2026-09-21","url":"https://newsroom.paypal-corp.com/2026-08-10-PayPal-Takes-Center-Stage-at-Ai4-2026","status":"reviewed_no_metric","note":"PayPal's latest located agentic-commerce update describes trust and merchant integration capability but supplies no completed agentic transaction value or autonomy mix."},{"date":"2026-09-21","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/webinars/building-claude-commerce-agents","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"Anthropic's recorded commerce-agent webinar remains a design and deployment resource without observed purchasing values or a comparable transaction series."},{"date":"2026-09-21","url":"https://www.census.gov/hfp/btos/data","status":"reviewed_context","note":"The latest located US Census BTOS data remain dated 6 September 2026 and cover general business AI use, not agentic transactions."},{"date":"2026-09-21","url":"https://www.ons.gov.uk/businessindustryandtrade/business/businessservices/articles/artificialintelligenceinukbusinesses/2023to2026","status":"reviewed_context","note":"The latest located ONS business AI release covers adoption and uses through June 2026. It does not classify commercial exchanges by agent autonomy or transaction value."},{"date":"2026-09-21","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-statistical-reports/w/ks-01-26-009","status":"reviewed_context","note":"Eurostat's current AI report measures technology adoption by enterprises and citizens. It provides no transaction-value denominator for AEI."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://business.adobe.com/assets/pdfs/resources/sdk/ai-traffic-trends-report-august-2026/ai-traffic-trends-report-2026-08-19.pdf","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"No newer Adobe primary measurement was located. The August report still measures AI referral traffic and engagement rather than delegated execution or transaction-value tiers."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://www.salesforce.com/news/stories/agentforce-commerce-announcement/","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"Salesforce's current commerce material describes product capability and AI-influenced activity. No new representative, mutually exclusive transaction-value split by autonomy tier was located."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://corporate.visa.com/en/sites/visa-perspectives/newsroom/visa-trust-index-consumer-insights-into-ai-shopping-payments.html","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"Visa's latest located release remains its September Trust Index. Stated trust and willingness are not observed agent-initiated transaction value."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://www.paypal.com/us/brc/commerce/agentic-commerce","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"PayPal's agentic-commerce collection supplied no newer primary transaction-value measurement or autonomy-tier series."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://stripe.com/newsroom/news","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"Stripe's newsroom supplied no new completed agentic transaction-value series. Product integrations and availability announcements remain infrastructure signals only."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/retail/amazon-ai-shopping-tools","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"Amazon's latest located shopping-agent evidence remains its September Auto-Buy feature article. It does not publish completed purchase value, frequency or market coverage."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://www.antgroup.com/en/news-media/press-releases","status":"reviewed_no_update","note":"No newer Ant or Alipay primary release with comparable autonomous transaction-value evidence was located in this review. Existing roll-out and payment-count signals remain non-eligible for AEI."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://www.census.gov/data/experimental-data-products/business-trends-and-outlook-survey.html","status":"reviewed_context","note":"The US Census BTOS page listed a 24 September data update, but the survey measures general business conditions and AI use, not autonomous economic transactions or their value."},{"date":"2026-09-28","url":"https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/2549.pdf","status":"reviewed_context","note":"Eurostat's newly published regional digital-society statistics report enterprise AI adoption for 2025. They do not identify agentic transactions, autonomy levels or transaction value."}]}